The 2024 Political Cycle’s Impact on TV Advertising
Author: James Vainisi
A couple of things are certain every election year: your favorite candidate will ignore the debate moderators, and your TV screen will be blitzed with more political ads than you thought possible. Are you ready for it?
The 2024 political cycle is expected to be the most expensive and competitive ever, with a projected $10.2 billion in candidate ad spending across various media platforms. TV will remain the dominant medium for high-exposure messaging–especially for the presidential race—and it will create challenges for non-political advertisers who want to reach their audiences and acquire new customers en masse.
With that being said, here are some key trends and challenges that TV advertisers and buyers will face in the 2024 political cycle, and how our team at Eicoff can help you navigate them.
Political TV Ad Spending Will Reach New Heights
According to AdImpact, political ads on TV (traditional linear and CTV) will account for $5.1 billion in projected spending during the 2024 cycle, up from $4.6 billion in 2020.
Presidential candidates are expected to spend $2.7 billion on TV ads. Significant budget will be spent in national news, sports, and prime-time programming, while local TV strategies will be focused on seven key swing states: Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, and Wisconsin.
TV will also be a major battleground for congressional and gubernatorial races, as both parties vie for control of the House, Senate, and state capitals. AdImpact is projecting a combined $4.2 billion in local TV commitments geared towards down-ballot advertising.
TV Ad Inventory Will Be Scarce and Expensive, Especially in Contested Political Markets
Surges in candidate ad spending will lead to high demand for TV units, especially during the Election Day run-up between September and early November. And unfortunately for general advertisers, it’s going to be a battle on two fronts this Fall because peak political season coincides with the beginning of Annual Enrollment Period for insurance companies.
This flood of time-sensitive messaging hitting the marketplace all at once will result in higher rates and overall lower unit availability. All together, we are projecting that rates in the most hotly contested markets will rise by a minimum of 35% compared to 4Q23.
Even if your campaign is not directly competing for the same inventory, the influx of political dollars can still have a domino-like effect on your TV buy. As general advertisers are pushed from their usual positions, they’ll test into new dayparts and programming as attempts to maintain share of voice.
How Your TV Agency Can Help You Navigate Election Season
Working closely with your agency is the best way to overcome challenges posed by the 2024 political cycle. Your team needs to be flexible not only with the parameters of your TV buy, but also when it comes to performance forecasting and managing the narrative upwards through your organization.
Here are a few ways you can work with your agency to attack the marketplace and put your team in the best position possible:
Plan Ahead: Work with your organization to align on 2H24 budget as soon as possible and keep your agency partners informed along the way. Brands that aren’t involved with upfront deals should begin planning 4th quarter TV buys earlier than usual this year – around late June or early July -- to lock in more advantageous pricing.
Determine Flexibility: We know the election will have the biggest impact on local TV inventory. If your campaign has traditionally focused on local buys, consider expanding into a national strategy to mitigate political impact and drive a greater per-spot efficiency. Furthermore, if your seasonality permits it, consider weighting your 4Q TV investments after Election Day (11/7).
Leverage Customer Data for Targeting: Response data your campaign has accumulated from your website and digital strategies can be used to expand the scope of a TV buy. Testing into more defined audiences across the ad-supported TV landscape–including emerging OTT and CTV platforms–can help guarantee delivery in the face of uncertain conditions.
The 2024 political cycle will be an exciting and challenging time for TV advertising, and we’re here to help. Our agency has leveraged DRTV media and creative strategies to help clients successfully navigate SIXTEEN Presidential elections! (Coincidentally, it all started with the 1960 election, where television played a pivotal role in shaping public opinion during the Kennedy/Nixon debates.)
Reach out today and find out how our expertise and resources can help you achieve aggressive growth targets this year!